UK Set to Overtake Germany and Japan to Become World's Fourth Largest Economy by 2030

UK Set to Overtake Germany and Japan to Become World's Fourth Largest Economy by 2030

Britain will surpass Germany and Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in 2030s, a new report from Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has forecast.

Britain overtook France in 2014 in terms of GDP, and according to the new report, it will be "the best performing economy in Western Europe" during the 2030s and will also overtake Germany and Japan. However, the country's fourth position is expected to last only for a short time only as Brazil will eventually overtake Britain by 2040. According to CEBR, the total cash value of British economy will be around $4.7 trillion by 2031. Britain - with a GDP of £2 trillion - is currently placed at fifth position in the table.

Britain's economic growth this year is all set to hit 2.9%. The spokeswoman of Treasury said the latest analysis is evidence that "government's plan for more prosperous future is delivering for working people."

The report considers UK's cultural diversity and strong position in software and information technology as country's main strengths. However, "bad export position" and "unbalanced economy" are the area that Britain needs to address in near future. Some other areas that could slow economic growth of the country include heavy dependence on "subsidies from the relatively high taxes levied on Londoners" and the "risk of breakup, with Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland."

The report forecasts Chinese economy to surpass US economy in 2029. Earlier, it was forecast that Chinese economy will overtake US in 2025.

According to CEBR, Italy ad France and Italy are "slipping way down the table" and could struggle to even remain members of world's influential economic clubs including G-8 and G-20.

"The World Economic League Table keeps track of which economies are rising and which ones are falling." said Danae Kyriakopolou, CEBR Acting Managing Economist who heads CEBR's global research.

"China's slower than expected growth and risks around the sustainability of its debt are reflected in a delay in the date when it is expected to overtake the US as the world's largest economy from 2025 to 2029."

Over the next 15 years, India and Brazil will replace France and Italy in terms of GDP in the top eight economies. As both these countries - Brazil and India - meet the political criteria for exclusive G8 club's membership, their entry to G8 could result in France and Italy being dropped from the club or expansion of the group to a G10.

According to the International Monetary Fund, France's GDP will grow just 1.25% per year on average over the next five years.

"Europe's economic weakness is likely to be reflected in France, Italy and Russia being dropped from the world's G-8 Economic Club." Kyriakopolou said.

"The world's fastest growing region is forecast to be Central Asia. This is driven by fundamentals and is likely to be reinforced by China's One Belt One Road proposals."





Scroll to Top